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AI has torched the market for junior programmers

Junior programmers are getting destroyed by AI — down 19%, while devs over 40 thrive. Meanwhile, millions of non-developers are shipping real software without the job title. The credential market collapsed; the activity exploded. The problem: nobody's building the next generation of senior engineers.

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Highlights

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  • Apple is drowning in submissions it can't review fast enough. The software is getting built. The judgment layer is not keeping up with it, and the mechanism that used to build it, apprenticeship inside employment, has collapsed.
  • redesigning the junior role around customer contact and specification rather than typing
  • We are not watching the death of programming. We are watching programming stop being a job title and become a capability, the same way "typist" stopped being a job title when it became a thing everyone was expected to know

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In summary, while the formal job market for junior programmers has collapsed, programming is transitioning from a specific job title into a ubiquitous capability used by non-developers across various professions.

  • AI has severely reduced hiring for entry-level programmers (ages 22-25) and roles focused on writing code to specification.
  • Total software creation is actually increasing, driven by \"vibe-coders\" (non-developers) shipping apps and tools using AI.
  • The \"career ladder\" is broken because the junior roles that previously trained future senior engineers are being automated.
  • To prevent a future shortage of expert judgment, the industry must redesign junior roles to focus on specification and customer contact rather than syntax.

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